40 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
4894ffcf21 Rm voldep conclusions slide 2025-06-27 16:13:15 +02:00
1c4f49214c More precise statement on nonequidistant case 2025-06-27 15:43:29 +02:00
b09fa63497 Update citations 2025-06-27 15:25:40 +02:00
13c238779e Improve crps theory slide 2025-06-27 09:44:14 +02:00
99e7b2fd7b Make prop2 proof more consistent 2025-06-25 16:01:49 +02:00
1c58c4bf89 Improve prop2 proof 2025-06-25 14:37:42 +02:00
b18f551a84 Add proof of prop 2 2025-06-25 11:38:11 +02:00
065f2fa142 Update c++ snippet 2025-06-24 14:53:38 +02:00
ecff3e485a Not MLE but QMLE 2025-06-24 10:11:45 +02:00
1941b43d1c Move title slide 2025-06-23 20:17:28 +02:00
732ed1a39a Fix Model Overview slide (voldep) 2025-06-23 17:17:37 +02:00
21d58ccc4e mcrps: fix parameters plot (burn in) 2025-06-22 20:04:12 +02:00
6b5d7abfea Update crps optimality 2025-06-22 18:07:51 +02:00
74d338b7f1 Nice cols für the knots plot 2025-06-22 17:21:00 +02:00
6b1b6aea20 Update slides 2025-06-22 16:45:20 +02:00
b231513d0a Remove slide content where possible, improve overview transitions 2025-06-22 10:28:34 +02:00
9f8cd986f1 Fix typos throughout the document 2025-06-22 09:52:45 +02:00
a8f46db8a2 Fix time-varying weights plot 2025-06-22 09:33:05 +02:00
b49fa7d0db Improve CRPS Optimiality slides 2025-06-21 14:58:55 +02:00
9bc402b926 A thousand minor improvements 2025-06-20 11:30:44 +02:00
2b22506fb8 Update slides 2025-06-15 11:55:33 +02:00
e84df0ca8f Update crps learning introduction slide + finger alignment 2025-06-15 11:55:12 +02:00
05dc28288b Update cdf weights plot 2025-06-15 11:22:19 +02:00
eb0529a964 Init cdf weighting plot 2025-06-15 11:12:32 +02:00
169f00c937 Simplify rcpptimer code block 2025-06-14 15:47:15 +02:00
ee421bf1e0 Add svg qr code 2025-06-14 15:24:22 +02:00
e584642d95 Embed resources = true 2025-06-14 10:16:08 +02:00
1e008769b6 Create CNAME 2025-06-14 10:08:09 +02:00
e22976a178 Add index.html to version control 2025-06-14 10:07:02 +02:00
fd2222edb3 Crop UDE signet 2025-06-14 09:58:36 +02:00
83f0138ede Crop ude signet properly 2025-06-10 14:43:56 +02:00
657272bbc5 Update contributions slide 2025-06-09 11:45:23 +02:00
17d34e5069 Add conclusion slide 2025-06-09 11:05:50 +02:00
528dc1d69c Add custom.html 2025-06-09 09:38:10 +02:00
74dfdf0bf3 Use signets instead of loos 2025-06-09 09:37:10 +02:00
5cea7e03c2 Pimp pointer 2025-06-08 11:54:47 +02:00
8df71ce1d3 Update pointer, logos, etc. 2025-06-08 11:30:43 +02:00
25e935661f Fix some minor problems 2025-06-04 14:51:15 +02:00
92539be2e0 Make ondil package name italics 2025-06-04 10:36:48 +02:00
be5dda0d0b Update ondir flow colours 2025-06-03 12:11:33 +02:00
34 changed files with 68469 additions and 810 deletions

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.gitignore vendored
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@@ -83,6 +83,5 @@ data/*
# Ignore html files for now # Ignore html files for now
# TODO: Remove later # TODO: Remove later
*.html
index_cache index_cache
index_files index_files

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defense.berrisch.biz

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font-weight: 900;
color: red;
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opacity: 0 !important;
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.no-cursor a,
.no-cursor div,
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cursor: none;
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---
title: "CDF Weights"
date: 2025-07-10
format:
revealjs:
embed-resources: true
execute:
daemon: false
highlight-style: github
---
```{ojs}
d3 = require("d3@7")
```
```{ojs}
cdf_data = FileAttachment("cdf_data.csv").csv({ typed: true })
```
```{ojs}
function updateChartInner(g, x, y, linesGroup, color, line, data) {
// Update axes with transitions
x.domain(d3.extent(data, d => d.x));
g.select(".x-axis").transition().duration(1500).call(d3.axisBottom(x).ticks(10));
y.domain([0, d3.max(data, d => d.y)]);
g.select(".y-axis").transition().duration(1500).call(d3.axisLeft(y).ticks(5));
// Group data by basis function
const dataByFunction = Array.from(d3.group(data, d => d.b));
const keyFn = d => d[0];
// Update basis function lines
const u = linesGroup.selectAll("path").data(dataByFunction, keyFn);
u.join(
enter => enter.append("path").attr("fill","none").attr("stroke-width",3)
.attr("stroke", (_, i) => color(i)).attr("d", d => line(d[1].map(pt => ({x: pt.x, y: 0}))))
.style("opacity",0),
update => update,
exit => exit.transition().duration(1000).style("opacity",0).remove()
)
.transition().duration(1000)
.attr("d", d => line(d[1]))
.attr("stroke", (_, i) => color(i))
.style("opacity",1);
}
chart = {
// State variable for selected mu parameter
let selectedMu = 1;
const filteredData = () => cdf_data.filter(d =>
Math.abs(selectedMu - d.mu) < 0.001
);
const container = d3.create("div")
.style("max-width", "none")
.style("width", "100%");
const controlsContainer = container.append("div")
.style("display", "flex")
.style("gap", "20px")
.style("align-items", "center");
// Single slider control for mu
const sliderContainer = controlsContainer.append('div')
.style('display','flex')
.style('align-items','center')
.style('gap','10px')
.style('flex','1');
sliderContainer.append('label')
.text('Naive:')
.style('font-size','20px');
const muSlider = sliderContainer.append('input')
.attr('type','range')
.attr('min', 0)
.attr('max', 1)
.attr('step', 0.1)
.property('value', selectedMu)
.on('input', function(event) {
selectedMu = +this.value;
muDisplay.text(selectedMu.toFixed(1));
updateChart(filteredData());
})
.style('width', '100%')
//.style('-webkit-appearance', 'none')
.style('appearance', 'none')
.style('height', '8px')
.style('background', '#BDBDBDFF');
const muDisplay = sliderContainer.append('span')
.text(selectedMu.toFixed(1))
.style('font-size','20px');
// Add Reset button
controlsContainer.append('button')
.text('Reset')
.style('font-size', '20px')
.style('align-self', 'center')
.style('margin-left', 'auto')
.on('click', () => {
selectedMu = 0.5;
muSlider.property('value', selectedMu);
muDisplay.text(selectedMu.toFixed(1));
updateChart(filteredData());
});
// Build SVG
const width = 800;
const height = 450;
const margin = {top: 40, right: 20, bottom: 40, left: 40};
const innerWidth = width - margin.left - margin.right;
const innerHeight = height - margin.top - margin.bottom;
// Set controls container width to match SVG plot width
controlsContainer.style("max-width", "none").style("width", "100%");
// Distribute each control evenly and make sliders full-width
controlsContainer.selectAll("div").style("flex", "1").style("min-width", "0px");
controlsContainer.selectAll("input").style("width", "100%").style("box-sizing", "border-box");
// Create scales
const x = d3.scaleLinear()
.range([0, innerWidth]);
const y = d3.scaleLinear()
.range([innerHeight, 0]);
// Create a color scale for the basis functions
const color = d3.scaleOrdinal(["#80C684FF", "#FFD44EFF", "#D81A5FFF"]);
// Create SVG
const svg = d3.create("svg")
.attr("width", "100%")
.attr("height", "auto")
.attr("viewBox", [0, 0, width, height])
.attr("preserveAspectRatio", "xMidYMid meet")
.attr("style", "max-width: 100%; height: auto;");
// Create the chart group
const g = svg.append("g")
.attr("transform", `translate(${margin.left},${margin.top})`);
// Add axes
const xAxis = g.append("g")
.attr("transform", `translate(0,${innerHeight})`)
.attr("class", "x-axis")
.call(d3.axisBottom(x).ticks(10))
.style("font-size", "20px");
const yAxis = g.append("g")
.attr("class", "y-axis")
.call(d3.axisLeft(y).ticks(5))
.style("font-size", "20px");
// Add a horizontal line at y = 0
g.append("line")
.attr("x1", 0)
.attr("x2", innerWidth)
.attr("y1", y(0))
.attr("y2", y(0))
.attr("stroke", "#000")
.attr("stroke-opacity", 0.2);
// Add gridlines
g.append("g")
.attr("class", "grid-lines")
.selectAll("line")
.data(y.ticks(5))
.join("line")
.attr("x1", 0)
.attr("x2", innerWidth)
.attr("y1", d => y(d))
.attr("y2", d => y(d))
.attr("stroke", "#ccc")
.attr("stroke-opacity", 0.5);
// Create a line generator
const line = d3.line()
.x(d => x(d.x))
.y(d => y(d.y))
.curve(d3.curveBasis);
// Group to contain the basis function lines
const linesGroup = g.append("g")
.attr("class", "basis-functions");
// Store the current basis functions for transition
let currentBasisFunctions = new Map();
// Function to update the chart with new data
function updateChart(data) {
updateChartInner(g, x, y, linesGroup, color, line, data);
}
// Store the update function
svg.node().update = updateChart;
// Initial render
updateChart(filteredData());
container.node().appendChild(svg.node());
return container.node();
}
```

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library(tidyverse)
source("assets/01_common.R")
set.seed(2002)
# Experts
N <- 2
# Observations
T <- 2^5
# Size of probability grid
P <- 999
prob_grid <- 1:P / (P + 1)
# Realized observations
y <- rnorm(T)
# Deviation of the experts
dev <- c(-1, 3)
experts_sd <- c(1, sqrt(4))
# Expert predictions
experts <- array(dim = c(P, N))
seq(-5, 10, length.out = P) -> x_grid
experts[, 1] <- qnorm(prob_grid, mean = dev[1], sd = experts_sd[1])
experts[, 2] <- qnorm(prob_grid, mean = dev[2], sd = experts_sd[2])
experts <- rbind(c(rep(min(experts), N)), experts)
experts <- rbind(experts, c(rep(max(experts), N)))
prob_grid <- c(0, prob_grid, 1)
naive <- 1
df <- data.frame(
x = rep(prob_grid, each = N),
y = c(t(experts)),
expert = rep(1:N, (P + 2)),
naive = rep(naive, (P + 2) * N)
)
naive <- seq(0, 1, length.out = 11)
dfs <- list()
df_old <- df
for (i in seq_along(naive)) {
df_old$naive <- naive[i]
df_new <- data.frame(
x = prob_grid,
y = (experts[, 1] * (naive[i] * (0.5) + (1 - naive[i]) * (1 - prob_grid)) + (naive[i] * 0.5 + (1 - naive[i]) * (prob_grid)) * experts[, 2]),
expert = 3,
naive = rep(naive[i], (P + 2))
)
dfs[[i + 1]] <- bind_rows(df_old, df_new)
}
dfs <- reduce(dfs, bind_rows)
colnames(dfs) <- c("y", "x", "b", "mu")
dfs %>%
ggplot(aes(x = x, y = y, color = factor(b))) +
geom_line() +
labs(
title = "Expert Predictions",
x = "Probability Grid",
y = "Predicted Value"
) +
theme_minimal() +
scale_color_brewer(palette = "Set1") +
theme(legend.position = "top") +
facet_wrap(. ~ mu, ncol = 3)
write_csv(dfs, "assets/crps_learning/weights_plot/cdf_data.csv")

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publisher = {Cornell University}, publisher = {Cornell University},
doi = {10.48550/arXiv.2201.06808}, doi = {10.48550/arXiv.2201.06808},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.06808} url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.06808}
}
@article{taylor2023angular,
title = {Angular Combining of Forecasts of Probability Distributions},
author = {Taylor, James W and Meng, Xiaochun},
year = {2023},
month = {5},
journal = {arXiv preprint arXiv:2305.16735},
publisher = {Cornell University},
doi = {10.48550/arXiv.2305.16735},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.16735}
} }

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Which *clones* the title slide to the placeholder slide.
You can add the placeholder slide like this:
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var titleSlide = document.querySelector('section#title-slide');
var titleSlideClone = titleSlide.cloneNode(true);
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var placeholder = document.querySelector('section.placeholder-for-titleSlide');
var visibility = placeholder.getAttribute('data-visibility');
if (visibility !== null) {
titleSlideClone.setAttribute('data-visibility', visibility);
}
placeholder.replaceWith(titleSlideClone);
Reveal.sync();
}
window.document.addEventListener("DOMContentLoaded", function (event) {
move_titleSlide();
});
</script>

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<script src="assets/revealjs/custom.js"></script>
<div
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<a href="https://www.uni-due.de/">
<img src="assets/ude_signet.svg" alt="Uni Duisburg-Essen Logo" style="height: 4vh; width: auto;">
</a>
<a href="https://www.hemf.wiwi.uni-due.de/en/">
<img src="assets/hecf_signet.svg" alt="HECF Logo" style="height: 4vh; width: auto;">
</a>
</div>
<script>
function move_titleSlide() {
var titleSlide = document.querySelector('section#title-slide');
var placeholder = document.querySelector('section.placeholder-for-titleSlide');
if (titleSlide && placeholder) {
// Transfer visibility attribute from placeholder to title slide
var visibility = placeholder.getAttribute('data-visibility');
if (visibility !== null) {
titleSlide.setAttribute('data-visibility', visibility);
}
// Move the title slide to replace the placeholder
placeholder.parentNode.replaceChild(titleSlide, placeholder);
Reveal.sync();
}
}
window.document.addEventListener("DOMContentLoaded", function (event) {
move_titleSlide();
});
</script>

View File

@@ -220,6 +220,15 @@
color: #777777 !important; color: #777777 !important;
} }
// Alternatively center the slide numbers
// .slide-number,
// .reveal.has-logo .slide-number {
// bottom: 10px !important;
// left: 50% !important;
// top: unset !important;
// color: #777777 !important;
// }
.sup-zero-width { .sup-zero-width {
display: inline-block; display: inline-block;
vertical-align: super; vertical-align: super;

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
<!--
Below is an adjusted version of: https://stackoverflow.com/questions/76261113/repeat-title-slide-at-end-of-reveal-js-presentation-and-add-additionnal-slides-a
Which *moves* the title slide to the placeholder slide.
You can add the placeholder slide like this:
## {.placeholder-for-titleSlide visibility="uncounted"}
-->
<script>
function move_titleSlide() {
var titleSlide = document.querySelector('section#title-slide');
var placeholder = document.querySelector('section.placeholder-for-titleSlide');
if (titleSlide && placeholder) {
// Transfer visibility attribute from placeholder to title slide
var visibility = placeholder.getAttribute('data-visibility');
if (visibility !== null) {
titleSlide.setAttribute('data-visibility', visibility);
}
// Move the title slide to replace the placeholder
placeholder.parentNode.replaceChild(titleSlide, placeholder);
Reveal.sync();
}
}
window.document.addEventListener("DOMContentLoaded", function (event) {
move_titleSlide();
});
</script>
<style>
#title-slide .subtitle {
margin-bottom: 2.5rem
}
</style>

66
assets/ude_logo.svg Normal file
View File

@@ -0,0 +1,66 @@
<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
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<style type="text/css">
path { fill:#003B7A;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none }
</style>
<defs id="defs6">
<clipPath id="clipPath16" clipPathUnits="userSpaceOnUse">
<path id="path18" d="m 0,331.654 841.89,0 L 841.89,0 0,0 0,331.654 Z"/>
</clipPath>
</defs>
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/*-- scss:defaults --*/
// Custom colours and variables
$jet: #131516;
$accent: #107895;
$accent2: #9a2515;
// $accent2: #e64173;
$right-arrow: "\2192"; // Unicode character for right arrow
// fonts
/*
Note: This theme uses the Roboto font family, which it imports from Google
Fonts to ensure consistent weighting in addition to availability. While
you can use a local installation of Roboto, this is generally not
recommended since the weighting will likely be wrong (probably too
light). OTOH, importing from Google Fonts can cause some issues in
certain secure environments due the external CDN (see:
https://github.com/grantmcdermott/quarto-revealjs-clean/issues/7). If
that's the case for you, simply comment out the `@import url(...)` line
below and it will default for the default Sans Serif font on your system
(e.g., Helvetica on a Mac). Circling back to the earlier point about
preserving consistent font weights, you may also wish to remove "Roboto"
from the choice set if the family is installed locally.
*/
@import url(https://fonts.googleapis.com/css?family=Roboto:200,200i,300,300i,350,350i,400,400i);
$font-family-sans-serif: "Roboto", sans-serif !default;
$presentation-heading-font: "Roboto", sans-serif !default;
$presentation-heading-color: $jet !default;
$presentation-heading-font-weight: lighter;
//$presentation-heading-line-height: 2;
//$presentation-block-margin: 28px;
$presentation-font-size-root: 32px;
// colors
//$body-bg: #f0f1eb !default;
$body-color: $jet !default;
$link-color: $accent !default;
$selection-bg: #26351c !default;
/*-- scss:rules --*/
.reveal a {
line-height: 1.5em;
}
.reveal p {
// font-weight: 300;
font-weight: lighter;
margin-top: 1.25em;
}
// title and headings
#title-slide {
text-align: left;
.title {
color: $body-color;
font-size: 1.4em;
// font-weight: 350;
font-weight: lighter;
}
.subtitle {
color: $accent;
font-style: italic;
margin-top: 0em;
font-weight: lighter;
}
.institute,
.quarto-title-affiliation,
.quarto-title-author-email {
font-style: italic;
// font-size: 80%;
// color: #7F7F7F;
}
.author,
.quarto-title-author-name {
color: $body-color;
}
.quarto-title-authors {
display: flex;
justify-content: left;
.quarto-title-author {
padding-left: 0em;
padding-right: 0em;
width: 100%;
}
}
}
.reveal h2 {
// font-weight: 350;
font-weight: lighter;
font-size: 1.4em;
}
.reveal h3 {
color: $accent;
font-style: italic;
// font-weight: 350;
font-weight: lighter;
font-size: 0.95em;
}
.reveal h4 {
color: $accent2;
// font-weight: 350;
font-weight: normal;
margin-top: 1.25em;
}
// alerts etc.
.alert {
color: $accent2;
}
.fg {
color: var(--col, $jet);
}
.bg {
background-color: var(--col, #fff);
padding: 0.1em;
border-radius: 5px;
display: inline-block;
}
// lists
// Unordered lists
.reveal ul {
// font-weight: 300;
font-weight: lighter;
padding-left: 16px;
li::marker {
color: mix($accent, white, 70%);
}
}
.reveal ul ul {
list-style: none;
li:before {
content: $right-arrow;
color: mix($accent, white, 60%);
display: inline-block;
width: 1em;
margin-left: -1em;
margin-right: 0.5em;
}
}
// Ordered lists
.reveal ol {
// font-weight: 300;
font-weight: lighter;
padding-left: 16px;
li::marker {
color: $accent;
}
}
// Move "hamburger" menu button to top right
.reveal .slide-menu-button {
position: fixed;
top: 6px;
right: 0;
display: flex;
justify-content: flex-end;
align-items: flex-start;
pointer-events: none;
}
.reveal .slide-menu-button > * {
pointer-events: auto;
}
// Same for chalkboard buttons (with an offset)
.reveal .slide-chalkboard-buttons {
position: fixed;
top: 12px;
right: 24px;
display: flex;
justify-content: flex-end;
align-items: flex-start;
pointer-events: none;
}
.reveal .slide-chalkboard-buttons > * {
pointer-events: auto;
}
// Beamer-style button link environment
.button {
display: inline-block;
padding: 6px 12px;
margin-bottom: 0;
font-size: 14px;
font-weight: 400;
line-height: 1.42857143;
text-align: center;
white-space: nowrap;
vertical-align: middle;
cursor: pointer;
background-color: $accent;
border: 1px solid $accent;
color: #fff !important;
text-decoration: none;
border-radius: 4px;
transition: all 0.2s ease-in-out;
}
.button:hover {
background-color: #0056b3;
border-color: #0056b3;
}
.button::before {
content: "";
margin-right: 5px;
}
// Special catch for etable environment to ensure these table images
// don't overflow the slide.
// See: https://lrberge.github.io/fixest/articles/etable_new_features.html
.etable {
width: 100%;
height: calc(100% - 3em); /* Adjust 3em based on the height of your header, if necessary */
display: flex;
align-items: center;
justify-content: center;
}
.etable img {
max-width: 100%;
max-height: 100%;
width: auto;
height: auto;
object-fit: contain;
}

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